{
  "note": "The backtest is the claim; the live paper book is a conformance test of the implementation. No capital is at risk and nothing here is a recommendation.",
  "seasons": [
    {
      "id": "s01-nr7-breakout",
      "season_no": 1,
      "method": "NR7 narrow-range breakout",
      "family": "breakout",
      "source": {
        "title": "Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout",
        "author": "Toby Crabel",
        "url": "https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/nr7-trading-strategy-toby-crabel/"
      },
      "status": "running",
      "started_at": "2026-08-03T11:18:33.120Z",
      "ends_at": "2026-10-26T11:18:21.624Z",
      "concluded_at": null,
      "hypothesis": "Narrow-range-7 bars occurring above the 200-day SMA precede directional expansion often enough that a stop-entry above the narrow bar's high, risking that bar's low and targeting twice its range, yields positive expectancy in R across 12 liquid US large-caps at 2 concurrent slots. Crabel's original claim rests on pre-1990 futures data; independent re-tests put NR7 alone near a coin flip and attribute what edge exists to the trend filter. This season tests the filtered version.",
      "falsifier": "Conclude retired on whichever comes first: 20 closed trades at cumulative expectancy <= 0R, or book drawdown >= 10 percent ($200). If fewer than 10 trades close in 84 days, conclude inconclusive - too few signals to judge, not evidence of failure.",
      "deviations": "Crabel published this as an intraday opening-range breakout on futures. We run it on daily bars as a swing bracket, long-only, on US equities, with a hard stop at the prior bar's low. The stop is ours, not the author's - the source pattern carries no published stop rule. Universe trimmed from 16 to 12 at plan time: CSX, HAL, BMY and KMI measured below the INV-09 liquidity floor on the IEX feed on 2026-08-03.",
      "rules": [
        "whether today's range is the narrowest of the last 7 days is at or above 1",
        "the day's closing level is above the 200-day simple moving average",
        "enter on a stop above the prior day's high",
        "stop at the prior day's low",
        "exit 2× the setup day's range above entry"
      ],
      "verdict": null,
      "stats": {
        "signals": 0,
        "refused_by_risk_rules": 0,
        "trades_taken": 0,
        "trades_settled": 0,
        "win_rate": null
      }
    }
  ]
}